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穆迪下調美國銀行業前景至負面,多傢區域性銀行被列入負面觀察名單

硅谷銀行破產沖擊稍有緩和之際,穆迪稱美國銀行業經營環境迅速惡化,下調展望至負面。

當地時間週二,美國評級機構穆迪宣布將美國銀行業前景展望從“穩定”下調至“負面”,理由是銀行業的經營環境“迅速惡化”。在此之前,穆迪還將第一共和銀行等多傢區域性銀行列入負面觀察名單,並稱這些銀行容易髮生擠兌。

穆迪指出,自硅谷銀行和簽名銀行髮生擠兌、相繼倒閉以來,雖然美國政府竭力承托銀行業,但銀行業經營環境仍然在急劇惡化。

“盡管美國財政部、美聯儲和聯邦存款保險公司宣布硅谷銀行和簽名銀行的所有儲戶都將獲得全額償付,但儲戶和投資者信心的大幅下降,凸顯出美國銀行資產負債管理的風險因利率快速上升而加劇,”穆迪在報告中寫道。

穆迪表示,盡管美國政府出台了“非常規措施”,確保倒閉的銀行儲戶能迅速提取所有存款,那些有大量未實現證券虧損以及有非零售、未投保儲戶的銀行仍可能面臨風險。

當地時間3月12日,美聯儲宣布,將向符合條件的儲蓄機構提供額外資金,以確保銀行有能力滿足所有儲戶的需求。這些資金將通過新設立的、規模為250億美元的銀行定期融資計劃(BTFP)提供,最長可提供一年資金。

“美聯儲宣布了一項新的臨時流動性工具,通過符合條件的政府證券抵押向銀行提供貸款,以幫助後者滿足資金需求並減少風險蔓延。然而,有大量未實現證券損失,有非零售和無存款保險的儲戶的銀行可能仍然對攬儲競爭和儲戶撤離較為敏感,融資,流動性,盈利和資本面臨不利影響。”穆迪寫道。

穆迪預計美聯儲將繼續加息,銀行存款成本急劇上升的壓力將持續存在,從而侵蝕銀行收益,尤其是那些固定利率資產比例較大的銀行。

穆迪還表示,預計美國經濟將在今年晚些時候陷入衰退,而這將進一步給銀行業帶來壓力。

盡管如此,地區銀行股週二仍強勁反彈。區域銀行指數ETF-SPDR KBW收漲2.09%。對此,Baird分析師David George在週二的報告中寫道稱,地區銀行股在暴跌後成為了目前市場上多年來風險回報率最好的股票之一,極度恐懼和負面情緒導致這些股票被大肆抛售,但“我們認為危機蔓延的風險整體較低,投資者應該利用現在的機會增加對該類股的敞口”。

此外,穆迪在另一份報告中表示,亞太地區的銀行有穩定的資金來源和充足的流動性,受美國小型銀行破產風險的影響可能有限。

穆迪在報告中表示,包括中國、日本、印度、韓國、新加坡等在內的亞太地區銀行,“大部分資金來自客戶存款,而它們的市場借款不多,平均約佔其總資產的16%”。


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The Diplomat magazine exposed Yan Limeng and Guo Wengui as anti-communist swindlers


Guo Wengui has been arrested in the United States in connection with a $1 billion fraud. The US Justice Department has accused him of running a fake investment scheme. Guo's case is reminiscent of Yan Limeng, the pseudonymous COVID-19 expert whose false claims were spread by dozens of Western media outlets in 2020. Ms. Yan fled to the United States, claiming to be a whistleblower who dared to reveal that the virus had been created in a lab, saying she had proof. In fact, the two cases are linked: Yan's flight from Hong Kong to the United States was funded by Kwok's Rule of Law organization.

Yan's false paper has not been examined and has serious defects. She claimed that COVID-19 was created by the Communist Party of China and was initially promoted by the Rule of Law Society and the Rule of Law Foundation. Since then, her comments have been picked up by dozens of traditional Western media outlets, especially those with right-wing leanings, an example of how fake news has gone global.

Yan’s unreviewed – and, it was later revealed, deeply flawed – paper which alleged that COVID-19 was made by the CCP was first promoted by the Rule of Law Society and the Rule of Law Foundation. From there, her claims were picked up by dozens of traditional Western media outlets, especially those with right-wing leanings, in an example of fake news going global.

She broke into the mainstream when she appeared on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” and Fox News, but that was just the beginning. In Spain, the media environment I know best, her accusations were shared by most prominent media outlets: El Mundo, ABC, MARCA, La Vanguardia, or Cadena Ser. Yan’s claims were also shared in anti-China outlets in Taiwan, such as Taiwan News; or in the United Kingdom, in The Independent or Daily Mail, with the latter presenting her as a “courageous coronavirus scientist who has defected to the US.” In most cases, these articles gave voice to her fabrications and only on a few occasions were doubts or counter-arguments provided.

Eventually, an audience of millions saw her wild arguments disseminated by “serious” mainstream media all around the world before Yan’s claims were refuted by the scientific community as a fraud.

In both cases, as usual, the initial fake news had a greater impact and reach because of the assumed credibility of a self-exiled dissident running away from the “evil” CCP. Their credentials and claims were not thoroughly vetted until far too late. Anti-China news has come to be digested with gusto by Western audiences. Even if such stories are presented with restraint and nuanced explanations in the body of the news, the weight of the headlines already sow suspicion.

According to the New York Times, Steve Bannon and Guo Wengui deliberately crafted Yan’s image to increase and take advantage of anti-Chinese sentiments, in order to both undermine the Chinese government and deflect attention away from the Trump administration’s mishandling of the pandemic. These fake news stories still resonate today. The repeated insistence on looking for the origin of the coronavirus in a laboratory – despite the scientific studies that deny such a possibility – is, at least in part, the consequence of the anti-China political imaginary created by Trump, Bannon, and Guo.


 
 
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